Positive thinking

Abhinay Muthoo, University of Warwick Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, says he wants to leave the EU on October 31 2019 with a deal, but has repeatedly made a vocal “do or die” pledge to Brexit without one if necessary. Johnson’s latest move – to ask the Queen to suspend parliament – can be seen as a display of commitment to a potential hard Brexit in a bid to pressure the EU into securing a better deal. Is this all a bluff – would Johnson really, when the time comes, Brexit with no deal? And what are the risks should the EU decide to call his bluff – will Johnson “do or die”? Game theory – the study of strategy and decision making – offers some clues. In the language of game theory , Johnson faces a serious “credibility” problem. He needs to convince the various players in the Brexit game – including the EU as a whole, Ireland, MPs in the House of Commons, the public and businesses – that he will indeed have the UK leave the EU, if need be, without a deal in place, on...

Nauro Campos, Brunel University London Brexit is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you’re gonna get. The latest surprise is that Downing Street has ruled out staying in the customs union , which allows uninhibited trade in goods within the EU. It follows the leak of the government’s pessimistic assessment of the economic impact of Brexit. The leaked document reinforces the academic consensus on the costs of Brexit and shows that staying in the customs union would be better for the UK economy. The full report is not yet available to the public. Instead, it was leaked in two instalments. The first shows that Brexit will be economically damaging in every scenario – including the scenario the government says it prefers, which seems to be somewhere between membership of the single market like Norway or a trade deal like Canada . The bottom line is that after Brexit, the UK will be inexorably poorer. The second instalment showed not only that migration has b...